The Trillion Dollar GPTs Economy

In the shadow of the tech giants, a new behemoth is stirring. The whispers among “Silicon Valley's” corridors are becoming increasingly loud and clear: OpenAI's Generative Pre-trained Transformers—GPTs, as they’re commonly known—could represent the next trillion-dollar opportunity in technology. This isn't just hyperbole; it's a hypothesis grounded in recent tech history and current economic trends, worth investigating. Let’s explore…

The App Store: A Precedent for Prosperity

Rewind to 2008. Apple opens a digital portal—the App Store—and unknowingly seeds a revolution. What began as an online marketplace burgeoned into an economic powerhouse, paying out over $320 billion to developers. This number didn’t from thin air; it was the result of individual creativity monetized at a scale previously unimaginable. But there was only one problem: this playground was reserved for those who could code (or those ready to spend 10’s of thousands of dollars to pay a developer to build a custom app).

What Apple did for app developers, OpenAI is poised to do for the field of AI, but on a scale unimaginable. Imagine an ecosystem akin to an 'App Store', not just for apps, but for intelligence – artificial intelligence that can be shaped, customized, and deployed not by a select few, but by anyone with a vision.

This GPT platform is where the parallels with Apple's success story deepen, but also diverge into something new… something more inclusive. It's not just an open market; it's an invitation for anyone to build (and monetize) without the prerequisite of knowing how to code. It’s ushering in an era where a lawyer, educator, artist, or entrepreneur can mold AI to fit their needs, crafting solutions and services with nothing more than a well-thought-out prompt or a sequence of commands, and then provides the ability to share (community) and monetize (sustainability) if you choose to do so.

GPTs: The Democratization of AI & The Creative Economy

Standing at this convergence of creativity and technology, we're actually given an opportunity to become not just consumers of AI, but creators and collaborators. Unlike the walled garden of the App Store, predicated on a user's ability to code, GPTs extend an open invitation to a wider demographic. The beauty of this approach is in its radical inclusivity. By lowering the threshold for entry into the AI space, the platform has an untapped reservoir of creativity and expertise. The potential here isn't limited to those who can navigate complex algorithms; it extends to anyone armed with expertise in their field and a desire to innovate.

I think the artisanal metaphor is apt; just as craftsmen of old fashioned raw materials into goods, today's (digital) artisans will mold AI to serve bespoke purposes. Imagine millions of GPTs, each uniquely crafted, offering solutions to problems we haven't even encountered yet.

Taking this a level higher, beyond an individual GPT, I think OpenAI’s next move will be to allow users to interlink various GPTs serving as a foundation to build custom protocols, flows, agents, and more. This is a unique multiplier for any creator of a GPT. Instead of focusing on the 1:many thesis of an app store this approach of, essentially, the ability to embed individual processes (GPTs) across various uses is 1:infinity.

This is quite literally a new creative economy. The next billion-dollar app won't just be a clever game or utility but a GPT-driven service that revolutionizes a sector or creates a new one entirely.

The Economic Ripple Effect: The Birth of AI-Driven Micro-Entrepreneurship

As we delve into the economic implications of OpenAI's GPTs, we can’t overlook their potential influence on the future of work and the burgeoning gig economy. This isn't just a technological shift; it's a paradigmatic change in how we perceive and engage in labor and earning.

GPTs: Catalysts for the Gig Economy Revolution

In the past decade, the gig economy has emerged as a testament to the evolving nature of work, shaped by the desire for flexibility and autonomy. Platforms like Uber and Airbnb have paved the way, demonstrating that income need not be tied to the traditional 9-to-5 model. Infact freelancers contributed $1.2 trillion to the economy in 2020, an increase from previous years, as reported by Upwork's "Freelance Forward" survey. Enter GPTs, and we're looking at a radical expansion of this gig economy concept.

GPTs democratize the ability to innovate and create income opportunities, much like the gig economy has democratized access to freelance work. Just as individuals today use their vehicles or homes to generate income through platforms like Lyft or Airbnb, tomorrow's workforce could leverage GPTs to create custom AI solutions or services. This represents a shift from using what you own to using what you know, or even more intriguingly, what you can imagine.

As GPTs evolve, they could play a pivotal role in transforming gig work from physical or manual tasks to intellectual and creative endeavors. This shift from gig to gigabyte is significant. It suggests a future where the knowledge economy melds with the gig economy, offering flexible, creative, and intellectually stimulating opportunities to a broad demographic.

When I look back at high growth entreprenuership many startup founders participated in over the past 20 years and where the world is going it is even more intriguing. Trends around burnout, building small vs large, and VC pull back serve as a breeding ground for a new way of working for these founders.
Note: There are a lot of convergences happening in this use case and I will be writing an additional essay where I have the space to dedicate to this soley.

This transformation has profound economic and social implications. For one, it could lead to a more inclusive economy, where individuals are empowered to create value irrespective of their location, background, or formal education. Additionally, it could herald a shift in work-life balance, with more people engaged in meaningful, fulfilling work that aligns with their skills and passions.

GPTs in a World of Inflation, High Cost of Living, and Layoffs

The potential economic impact of GPTs gains an even sharper focus when viewed against the backdrop of current global economic challenges. Amidst rising inflation, increasing cost of living, and corporate layoffs leading to widespread unemployment, GPTs could offer a transformative solution in the labor market.

The flexibility and accessibility of GPTs mean they can be a vital tool for individuals looking to supplement their income or even find new avenues of full-time employment. For many, the gig economy has been a buffer against economic shocks, providing a flexible income stream. GPTs could significantly enhance this buffer, offering more sophisticated, high-value gig work; and I’m not talking Fiverr or Upwork. This shift could lead to a more resilient workforce, capable of adapting to economic changes and technological advancements as well as providing a sustainable path to work life balance. The automation of GPTs mean work is less focused on repetitive labor and more focused on ideas and concepts created once but reused over and over again. The biggest challenge will be distribution but this is where the significance of the GPTs App Store comes into play and exactly why first movers can capture a lot of this market.

The Trillion-Dollar Question

Is a trillion dollars a reasonable estimate, or is it a figure plucked from the ether? To answer this we have to consider the multiplier effect I mentioned above. As OpenAI's GPTs facilitate the birth of new services, products, and solutions, each successful implementation acts as a flywheel, inspiring further innovation and investment.

The trillion-dollar valuation isn't hyperbole; it's a reflection of the scale of transformation at hand. When you dismantle the barriers to entry, you unlock the potential of every creative mind. You enable a global community to contribute, create, and benefit from the AI economy. While Apple's App Store built its success on the creativity of developers, OpenAI's GPT platform is predicated on the intellectual diversity and creativity of the entire world.

But to temper my optimism a bit: The implications of a platform that both simplifies and amplifies the creation of AI are countless. It is critical to approach this with a measured skepticism: How will issues of governance, ethics, and security be addressed in this open-ended ecosystem? The potential for innovation is matched by the potential for exploitation. The clarion call now goes out not just to innovators and entrepreneurs but to policymakers and ethicists as well. This platform requires a responsible approach to harness its potential fully and equitably.

So…a trillion dollars may actually be a conservative estimate when we factor in the secondary and tertiary industries that will blossom around this new AI ecosystem. From education to entertainment, from healthcare to hospitality, there isn’t an industry that will remain untouched by this transformation.

Final thoughts…

The exuberance surrounding GPTs is warranted, but it must be tempered with an understanding of the broader implications. We stand on a precipice, where AI is as ubiquitous as the internet. GPTs may well be the foundation of the defining economic opportunity of our era. As with any great change, there will be challenges; but for those who navigate it wisely, the rewards could be unparalleled.

If you’ve gotten this far thank you. If you are as excited as I am and wondering how to take next steps I am thinking of launching a free community where others like us can talk, convene, share, and build together. I think the importance of community is critical considering the speed at which this industry is changing.

Until the next piece of the puzzle falls into place,

AB